The CA is reporting that Early Voting is brisk this August:
Surging Republican turnout is setting a pace for early voting numbers in the Aug. 5 elections that would break the previous Shelby County early voting record in a summer election.
Through Thursday, 30,388 voters had cast ballots, 28,856 since voting expanded to satellite sites on Monday — for an average of 7,239 since the expansion of locations. If there are 7,500 votes on each of the final nine days of early voting, it would push the numbers past 90,000, with 100,000 or more early votes a possibility.
Heavy Democratic voting due to the hotly contested 9th District race between incumbent Steve Cohen and former mayor Willie Herenton, right? Well, maybe not so much as we would think:
sTurnout reports reveal that Republican voters are taking up a much larger share of the vote than they did in 2006 or 2008, a development that, if it continues, could throw a big wrench in Democratic hopes of taking most — if not all — countywide positions.
In the first three days of satellite voting, 45.1 percent of voters asked for Republican ballots in state and federal primaries compared with 54.8 percent for Democrats. That’s up from 30.6 percent Republican ballots after one week of early voting in 2008.
Statistics also show that many more registered white voters have turned out (10,351, or 43.8 percent) than registered black voters (7,820, or 33.1 percent) and those classified as “other” (5,482, or 23.2 percent), which mostly includes people who did not disclose race.
In the August 2008 early-voting period, black registered voters made up 43.2 percent of the early vote, compared with 37.5 percent for white registered voters and 19.3 percent in the “other” category.
Of the top 25 precincts by turnout percentage, 24 of them were majority white and majority Republican.
Ruh-roh! Well, the GOP does have a hot gubernatorial primary (for which I envy them) and in North Shelby County, there is that 8th District GOP throwdown between the gospel-singing farmer and the Two Doctors.
Note, however, that there are still more Democratic primary ballots requested than GOP. Given the numbers, why?
However, local Republicans said they are seeing many reliable Republican voters in the 9th Congressional District asking for Democratic ballots so they can have a say in the congressional primary between incumbent U.S. Rep. Steve Cohen and former Memphis mayor Willie Herenton.
“There’s no question about it — that is happening,” Wiseman said.
So, how did Democratic leaders not see this coming?
Some of the ambition from Democrats was based upon 2008 turnout, when a big Democratic wave helped give President Barack Obama 63 percent of the vote, with just 35 percent support for Republican John McCain.
County Democratic chairman Van Turner still believes Democrats will have big showings during the final week of early voting and, especially, on election day.
Well, I have my own thoughts on this (SELF-PROMOTION ALERT! SELF-PROMOTION ALERT!) at my other blog, LeftWingCracker. I believe that many African-American voters in Big Shelby are conflicted about keeping the Congressman they appreciate and voting against a revered historical figure, and can’t bring themselves to choose.
If the Shelby CountyDemocratic Party’s Coordinated Campaign can help these folks overcome this and get them out to vote between now and 7 P.M. on August 5, then the County Democratic ticket will do all right. If not, then the much-expected Democratic takeover of County offices will be pushed back to 2014.